Meteorologists explain that a 30% chance of rain means there's a 3 in 10 chance of rain at any point in the forecast area.

Scientists at the University of California, San Diego (UCSD) have developed new insight into a formula that helped British cryptanalysts crack the German Enigma code in World War II.

This paper presents an axiomatic approach to the problem of aggregating expert assessments of an event's probability into some group probability assessment. A multiplicative formula is derived.

Medical Care, Vol. 45, No. 10, Supplement 2: Comparative Effectiveness and Safety: Emerging Methods (Oct., 2007), pp. S103-S107 (5 pages) Inverse probability-weighted estimation is a powerful tool for ...