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Expectations for widespread price hikes following a wave of new tariffs this year have largely fallen short, surprising economists and fueling claims from tariff defenders that the levies are having no impact on inflation.

New data showing price increases last month could foreshadow even higher costs if the president imposes steep tariffs on Aug. 1.

Tariffs contributed modestly to the rise of inflation last month, analysts told ABC News, citing the price hikes in product categories made up primarily of imports. But, they added, overall price increases owed largely to a rise in housing and food products with little connection to tariffs.

A new inflation report released this morning shows the country’s 12-month inflation rate has gone up for a second consecutive month. Economists have been warning about the impact of President Trump’s tariff threats.

Inflation accelerated in June as President Trump’s tariffs started to leave a bigger imprint on the economy, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to hold interest rates steady when policymakers next meet this month.

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned that President Donald Trump’s bid to assert control over the Federal Reserve and drive down interest rates could trigger a surge in inflation expectations that pushes up long-term borrowing costs.

The consumer price index for June show that Trump tariffs began to nudge inflation only modestly higher last month.

Some top executives at Wall Street banks have been showing concern about higher inflation and potential deterioration of the U.S. economy as tariffs take effect, noting there has been more cautious behavior from corporate clients.

But while the underlying narrative remains that there will be a negative impact on the economy going forward, there is some hope that it will not be quite as bad as feared, according to a new survey of economists.