The US stock market has been on a rollercoaster during President Donald Trump’s second term. The S&P 500 posted its third worst 100-day start to a presidential term in US history, only behind Gerald Ford and Richard Nixon.

In 100 days full of surprises for investors, the S&P 500 and Dow nearly recouped their April declines – even with a worse-than-expect GDP report.

The S&P 500 peaked at 6,144 in February 2025. If the U.S. economy suffers a recession, the index could drop 31% to 4,239, provided its performance aligns with the historical average. That implies 23% downside from the current level. In short, history says the stock market would indeed crash if President Trump's tariffs cause a recession.